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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-11-02T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18161/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a long-duration M1.6 flare from AR 12891 and a corresponding eruption signature can be seen in the available SDO AIA imagery toward the center of the Earth-facing disk as early as 2021-11-01T23:37Z. The shock was most probably caused by the combined arrival of this CME and the 2021-11-01T18:38Z CME and exhibited a dramatic increase in B_tot first to 14 nT at 2021-11-03T19:55Z and then to the maximum of 24 nT at 21:07Z, with corresponding increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (to speeds around 700 km/s, with a maximum of 809 km/s). There is a clear flux rope, accompanied by a drop in temperature the next morning. There was an associated magnetopause crossing and a strong geomagnetic storm, with 5 synoptic periods of Kp above 6 (three of them with Kp=7).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T19:23Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-03T21:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18171/1
Model Inputs:
2021-11-01T18:38:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=32.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=509.0, HalfAngle=32.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T01:20Z
2021-11-01T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=43.0, Lat.=-19.0, Speed=771.0, HalfAngle=49.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T02:00Z
2021-11-02T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-5.0, Lat.=16.0, Speed=1151.0, HalfAngle=51.0, Time21.5=2021-11-02T05:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-03T21:39Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =29.7 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.2
(kp)90=5
(kp)180=7

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T06:39Z
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-03T16:14Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T02:08Z
STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-04T00:56Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211102_012000_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 25.65 hour(s)
Difference: -2.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-11-02T17:44Z

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